Arlington's median single-family sale price was $335,000 in September 2026. A year earlier it was $334,000. Over the same twelve months, the median price per square foot fell from $179.25 to $173.82, homes took 55 days to sell instead of 44, and closings landed at 94.3% of list price instead of 95.1%. The headline price held, but every number tied to negotiating power moved toward the buyer.
These figures come from the North Texas Real Estate Information System monthly summary for September 2026, which the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M produced on October 7. If you're comparing Arlington with other Tarrant County suburbs, they explain why a stable median and a softer market can both be true.
Where the Room Shows Up at the Closing Table
The sold-to-list ratio is the gap a buyer feels most directly. In September 2026, Arlington single-family homes closed at 94.3% of list price on average. In August they closed at 96.3%. That works out to about $94,300 for every $100,000 of asking price in September, compared with about $96,300 one month earlier.
Time on market moved the same way. Days on market went from 45 in August to 55 in September. More days on market usually means more price talks, more requests after inspection, and more listings that need a second look from the seller. The data doesn't track seller concessions or price cuts for Arlington, so the sold-to-list ratio is the clearest public measure of how much ground sellers gave up.
Same Median, Different Square Foot
Here's the year-over-year comparison for Arlington single-family homes:
| Arlington single-family, September | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 285 | 234 |
| Median price | $334,000 | $335,000 |
| Average price | $367,986 | $358,203 |
| Median price per sq ft | $179.25 | $173.82 |
| Sold-to-list ratio | 95.1% | 94.3% |
| Days on market | 44 | 55 |
| Pending sales | 233 | 185 |
| Active listings | 814 | 767 |
| Months inventory | 3.4 | 3.3 |
The median and the price per square foot measure different things. The median is the middle sale, whatever its size. Price per square foot shows what each unit of living space costs. A drop of about 3% per square foot means that at September 2026 pricing, a 2,000-square-foot house works out to roughly $347,640, compared with about $358,500 a year earlier. Meanwhile the median sale stayed close to $335,000. Buyers spent about the same and got more space for it.
The average price, which bigger and pricier homes pull upward, fell from $367,986 to $358,203. So the drop isn't confined to one size of house.
September Made the Split Easier to See
The August-to-September change shows the same pattern in one month. Arlington's median rose $10,000, from $325,000 to $335,000. At the same time, the median price per square foot fell from $176.28 to $173.82, the average price slipped from $360,497 to $358,203, and pending sales fell from 228 to 185.
A median can go up just because the homes that sold that month were bigger. Price per square foot adjusts for some of that, and it went down. If you only saw the $10,000 rise in the median, you'd get September backward.
One technical point applies to all of these numbers. The report says the current month's sale count is a projection of the final total once every sale is entered, and it only covers homes sold through the MLS. Builder sales arranged outside the MLS are left out.
Why 3.3 Months of Supply Looks Tighter Than the Market Feels
Arlington's 3.3 months of inventory in September 2026 was below Tarrant County's 3.5 months and well below the DFW-wide 4.3 months. If you stopped there, Arlington would look like the tighter market. How the figure is calculated tells a different story. The Texas Real Estate Research Center describes the calculation this way:
"The months of inventory is computed as the number of available listings in the local MLS system divided by the average number of sales reported in the immediately preceding 12-month period."
The bottom of that fraction is a twelve-month average, so it moves slowly. Sales from last fall, last winter and this spring still count toward it. If buyers slow down now, months of inventory will take a while to show it.
Pending sales react faster. The NTREIS report includes a "hotness ratio," which is pending sales divided by active listings. Arlington's hotness ratio was 24.1 in September 2026, from 185 pending sales and 767 active listings. Using the same table, September 2025 works out to about 28.6, from 233 pendings and 814 active listings. That's a smaller share of the market going under contract, even with fewer homes for sale.
Today's pending sales become next month's closings. Fewer closings will eventually pull the twelve-month average down, and the months-of-inventory figure will rise to catch up with what pendings already show.
There's no fixed cutoff for a balanced market. Texas A&M has historically put the statewide benchmark near 6.5 months. Its June 2025 Texas Housing Insight said relatively balanced Texas inventory usually falls between three and four months. The Arlington number makes more sense compared with its own past than with either benchmark.
The Rate Gap Behind the Numbers
Financing explains why price per square foot can fall while the median holds. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at an average of 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. A year earlier it averaged 6.30%.
Here's what that gap means for monthly principal and interest on a $300,000, 30-year loan. This leaves out taxes, insurance and any HOA dues:
- At 6.30%, the payment is about $1,857 a month.
- At 7.40%, it's about $2,077 a month.
- That's roughly $220 more each month for the same loan amount.
Many buyers work backward from a monthly payment they're comfortable with. When the rate jumps by more than a point, that payment covers a smaller loan. Sellers who want to close have two options. They can accept less per square foot, which Arlington's numbers show, or wait longer, which the 55 days on market also shows. The median can stay near $335,000 because buyers are still landing near the same total price. They're just getting more house for it.
The Fort Worth Report described the wider area the same way in September. A Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS leader said buyers have more choices than in 2022 and 2023, with some areas showing about 10 available homes where there used to be three. That comment covered the region, not Arlington specifically. Arlington's own figures point the same way.
The Carrying Cost Moved Too
Property taxes also affect the monthly cost of owning. In September 2026 the Arlington City Council adopted its FY2027 budget and kept the city property tax rate at $0.6298 per $100 of assessed value. The Fort Worth Report covered the final vote. It reported that the city's share of an average homeowner's bill is about $1,500, down from about $1,574 the year before. City Manager Trey Yelverton had told council members that taxable home values in the city fell 1.23%, the second-largest drop this century for Arlington. The same article said protests reduced property values by about $5 billion and that fees for water and garbage pickup are going up.
The city's share is only one line on a tax bill. Lower taxable values point the same direction as the sales data, though. In the current appraisal records, Arlington's housing stock is worth a bit less on paper than it was a year ago.
What the Next Release Will Test
Texas A&M says it releases data for DFW and other regions outside Houston on or near the 20th day after the month ends. The next metro-level update should come out around October 20. The October NTREIS city tables will show whether the slowdown carried into the next month. If September's 185 pending sales show up as fewer October closings, Arlington's months of inventory should start to rise. Price per square foot and the sold-to-list ratio will show whether the extra negotiating room is holding.
A Few Direct Answers
Is Arlington more competitive than the rest of DFW right now? By months of inventory, it looked tighter in September 2026, at 3.3 months compared with 4.3 metro-wide. But that figure is based on twelve months of past sales. The 94.3% sold-to-list ratio and 55 days on market show buyers had more room than that number suggests.
Did Arlington home prices go up in September? The median rose from $325,000 in August to $335,000 in September 2026, while the median price per square foot fell from $176.28 to $173.82. Year over year, the median was basically flat and price per square foot was down about 3%.
Does this data include new construction? It includes new homes sold through the MLS. Builder sales arranged outside the MLS aren't counted, so a newer subdivision's pricing may not fully appear in these figures.
If you're weighing an offer in Arlington and want to know where a particular house sits on price per square foot, days on market and sold-to-list for its part of the city, the Angelique Burkett Team can pull those comparisons from the latest monthly data. If you own in Arlington and are deciding whether to list this fall or wait, start with a free home valuation built on those same September numbers.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
