How much room does a Southlake buyer have to negotiate this fall? Watch the gap between asking price and closing price. In September 2025, Southlake single-family homes closed at 91.7% of list price. In September 2026, the figure was 95.2%. On a $1.5 million house, that 3.5-point gap is about $52,000 a buyer could once expect to shave off at the table. That money now goes to the seller.
The same report carried a headline number that drew more attention. The September 2026 median sale price in Southlake was $1,725,000, compared with $1,200,000 a year earlier. That is a 44% jump. It is also the least reliable number in the report. Buyers who plan around it will misread their position. The useful signal is the 95.2%, along with the listing counts behind it.
What a 44% jump looks like up close
Southlake is a small market by monthly closing count, and that changes how its medians behave. In September 2026, 36 single-family homes closed in the city. In September 2025, only 18 did. With so few sales, a handful of large-estate closings can move the midpoint by hundreds of thousands of dollars. The average price shows that happened here. It was $2,181,579 in September 2026, about $457,000 above the median.
The months just before September tell a calmer story. Here are the three most recent monthly reports from the North Texas Real Estate Information System, compiled by the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center:
| Southlake single-family | July 2026 | August 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed sales, 2026 vs. 2025 | 30 vs. 52 | 23 vs. 43 | 36 vs. 18 |
| Median price, 2026 | $1,405,000 | $1,375,000 | $1,725,000 |
| Median price, 2025 | $1,443,750 | $1,300,000 | $1,200,000 |
| Active listings, 2026 vs. 2025 | 146 vs. 152 | 128 vs. 146 | 115 vs. 128 |
| Months of inventory, 2026 vs. 2025 | 4.4 vs. 4.9 | 4.0 vs. 4.6 | 3.5 vs. 4.0 |
| Sold-to-list ratio, 2026 vs. 2025 | 96.6% vs. 95.5% | 94.3% vs. 92.9% | 95.2% vs. 91.7% |
Over those three months, the median fell year over year in July, rose modestly in August, then spiked in September. That pattern points to a change in which homes sold, not to a sudden repricing. The longer view says the same thing. In the 76092 ZIP code area, the median for existing single-family homes from January through September 2026 was $1,377,500. That is up 2.0% from the same period in 2025. Prices are drifting up slowly. They did not jump by half in a month.
The other rows of the table have moved together all summer, and they are the more important part.
Fewer homes on the shelf every month
Active listings in Southlake were lower than a year earlier in July, August and September 2026. Months of inventory fell in each of those months too. It went from 4.4 to 4.0 to 3.5, against 4.9, 4.6 and 4.0 the year before. Fresh supply also came in a little lighter. Sellers added 116 new listings over the three months, compared with 126 in summer 2025.
Shrinking supply alongside fewer closings is an unusual combination. From July through September 2026, 89 single-family homes closed in Southlake, compared with 113 a year earlier. Normally, slower sales would let listings pile up and push the sold-to-list ratio down. In Southlake, the ratio went up every month. Fewer homes are selling, and fewer are being offered, at about the same pace. A buyer who walks into this market expecting summer-slowdown discounts will find sellers who still have pricing power, because the shelf they compete on keeps getting shorter.
Days on market show the same thing. In September 2026, the median Southlake listing took 49 days to sell, down from 57 a year earlier.
Two markets share one ZIP code
The citywide 3.5 months of inventory blends two very different groups of homes. The Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS ZIP code report splits them apart. It uses the Census definition of the 76092 ZIP code area, so its boundary is close to the city line but not identical.
In September 2026 in that area:
- Existing single-family homes: 36 sales, a $1,687,000 median, 86 active listings and 2.6 months of supply.
- New construction single-family homes: 2 sales at a $3,675,000 median, 29 active listings and 20.5 months of supply.
The year-to-date figures make the split clearer. Existing homes in 76092 recorded 311 sales from January through September 2026, at a median of $384 per square foot and 36 days on market. New construction recorded 11 sales at a $3,350,000 median, $627 per square foot and 91 days on market.
Both groups closed at 96.8% of original list price year to date. New-build sellers in Southlake are taking more than twice as long to sell, but they are not giving up more at closing. They hold the price and wait for the buyer. So the 29 new homes on the market add little leverage for someone shopping resale. They sit at about 1.6 times the price per square foot, in a different tier, at a different pace.
For a buyer, that means 29 unsold new homes in the ZIP code don't make the resale side any looser. The resale side has 2.6 months of supply, which counts as a tight market by any standard.
Why the new supply stays small
If resale inventory is this tight, it's fair to ask when more homes arrive. Southlake's recent approvals answer it. New neighborhoods come in batches of a few dozen lots or fewer, often after long debate at City Council:
- Bear Hollow, off Davis Boulevard. City Council approved it 4-3 on Aug. 18, 2026, as a gated community of 33 lots on 20.97 acres with an average lot size of 14,648 square feet. Community Impact reported that the developer, BridgeRock Developments, cut one lot from the earlier 34-home plan to make room for two gated entrances. Council members had suggested a gate to keep trucks from using the neighborhood streets to turn around.
- Linmar Estates: 10 lots on 10.8 acres, ranging from 25,000 to 54,000 square feet, with planned homes of 5,000 to 9,000 square feet. Calais Custom Homes plans to build all 10, with completion expected by 2028, according to Community Impact.
- Shady 21 LLC's subdivision: 27 lots. Five have a 30,000-square-foot minimum and 22 have a 20,000-square-foot minimum. Zoning was approved Oct. 21, 2025.
- Jane's Place, off North Peytonville Avenue. Coleigh Homes' plan was reduced from 15 lots to 14 on 22.7 acres when council approved the change on March 3, 2026.
- WillowTree Garden: 20 homes in a mixed-use project. Council extended its substantial-completion deadline to March 4, 2027, Community Impact reported.
Together with a four-home infill at 2300 W. Continental Blvd. approved in April 2025, these projects add up to fewer than 110 homes, spread over several years. Over nine months, the existing-home market in 76092 closed 311 sales. Lots of 14,000 to 54,000 square feet also tend to produce large custom homes, closer to the new-construction tier than to the resale median. None of these projects has published sale prices. Even when they finish, they will barely add to resale supply.
What this means at the offer stage
For buyers comparing Southlake with nearby suburbs this fall, the important number is 2.6 months of resale supply and a sold-to-list ratio that rose year over year in every month of the third quarter. Listing prices on well-kept resale homes have mostly held up at closing. A strategy built on a big discount from list price has less to work with here than it did a year ago.
For sellers, September's $1.725 million median doesn't reprice their home. The year-to-date existing-home median rose about 2%, and that is the honest benchmark. The leverage they do have comes from shrinking competition, not from a jump in prices.
A few direct answers
Did Southlake home prices really rise 44% in a year? No. The September 2026 median jumped because more high-end homes closed against a very thin September 2025 sample. From January through September 2026, the existing-home median in 76092 rose 2.0%.
Doesn't 20.5 months of new-construction supply mean Southlake is overbuilt? That figure covers 29 new homes at a $3.35 million year-to-date median. The resale tier, where most sales happen, has 2.6 months of supply.
Which number should I watch in the next monthly report? Active listings and the sold-to-list ratio. If listings keep falling year over year while the ratio stays above last year's level, the resale market is still tightening, whatever the median does.
If you own a Southlake home and want to know where it sits against 2.6 months of resale supply, rather than against a median pushed up by a few large-estate closings, the Angelique Burkett Team can price it against the homes you would actually compete with. Get Your Free Home Valuation.
